Monthly Economic and Financial Developments (MEFD) December 2025

Published: Monday February 2nd, 2026

Domestic Economic Developments

Overview

Economic indicators suggest that during the month of December, the domestic economy sustained its growth trajectory, relative to the comparative period in 2024, as key economic indicators continued to normalize closer to their medium-term potential. Tourism output gains, while at healthy levels, slowed in comparison with the previous year, as the high value-added stopover segment remained constrained by capacity limitations and reduced demand from the United States market. Nonetheless, expansion in the cruise segment remained robust. In fiscal developments, preliminary data on the Government’s budgetary operations for the first quarter of FY2025/26 revealed that the deficit narrowed, on account of an increase in total revenue, which overshadowed the rise in aggregate expenditure. Further, monetary trends during the review month showed a reduction in banking sector liquidity, as the expansion in domestic credit, contrasted with the contraction in the deposit base. Likewise, external reserves decreased, explained by net foreign currency outflows through both the public and private sectors, in line with the seasonal uptick in the demand for foreign currency in the latter half of the year.

Real Sector

Tourism

Preliminary data showed that the growth in tourism output continued to be paced by tempered activity in the high value-added stopover segment, owing to accommodation capacity constraints. Nevertheless, performance in the cruise sector remained strong.

According to data from the Ministry of Tourism, total arrivals grew by 20.5% to 1.4 million in December 2025, compared to the same period last year. Contributing to this development, sea passengers expanded by 23.7% to 1.2 million and air traffic by 1.1% to 0.2 million.

Diaggregated by major port of entry, total arrivals to Grand Bahama accelerated to 210,303 visitors from 70,522 in the prior year, as sea traffic expanded to 203,633 passengers from 64,609 in the corresponding 2024 period, while air traffic rose by 12.8% to 6,670. Further, total arrivals to the Family Islands increased by 14.5% to 649,489 visitors, supported by a 15.8% growth in sea passengers to 617,739. However, air arrivals reduced by 6.1% to 31,750. Meanwhile, overall visitors to New Providence grew by 2.9% to 527,881 reflective of a 2.9% gain in sea arrivals to 401,658 and a 2.6% uptick in air arrivals to 126,223.

On an annual basis, total arrivals rose by 11.4% to 12.5 million visitors, vis-a-vis 2024. Leading this outcome, sea arrivals expanded by 13.8% to 10.8 million. In contrast, air arrivals fell by 1.6% to 1.7 million.

Data provided by the Nassau Airport Development Company Limited (NAD) revealed that total departures—net of domestic passengers—declined by 0.2% to 142,417 in December, as compared to the same period last year. Specifically, US departures reduced by 4.1% to 113,796. However, non-US international departures rose by 18.8% to 28,621.

On a yearly basis, total outbound traffic declined by 2.1% to 1.6 million, led by a 3.5% falloff in US departures to 1.4 million. Providing some offset, non-US international departures grew by 6.8% to 0.2 million.

In the short-term vacation rental market, data from AirDNA showed that total room nights sold increased by 1.1% to 58,787 in December, relative to the comparable period in 2024. However, given increased inventory, the occupancy rates for both entire place listings and hotel comparable listings narrowed to 57.3% and 60.3%, respectively, from 57.9% and 60.9% in the previous year. As depicted in graph 1, the average daily room rate (ADR) for entire place listings moved higher by 6.2% to $722.05, compared to the preceding year. Likewise, the corresponding rate (ADR) for hotel comparable listings increased by 3.8% to $161.25, vis-à-vis the same period last year.

On a year-to-date basis, total room nights sold expanded by 5.1%, owing to increases in both entire place listings (7.9%) and in hotel comparable bookings (4.6%). Further, the average daily room rate (ADR) for entire place listings grew by 3.6%; however, the rate for hotel comparable listings fell by 1.6%.

Fiscal

Provisional data on the Government’s budgetary operations for the first 3 months of FY2025/26 indicated that the overall deficit decreased to $141.1 million, from $177.6 million in the same period of the previous fiscal year. Underpinning this development, total revenue rose by $107.0 million (15.7%) to $789.6 million, outstripping the $70.6 million (8.2%) rise in aggregate expenditure to $930.7 million.

The expansion in revenue collections was led by a $101.6 million (16.5%) rise in tax receipts. In particular, taxes on goods and services grew by $77.9 million (19.3%) to $481.4 million, vis-à-vis the same period in FY2024/2025. Contributing, value added tax (VAT) receipts advanced by $70.0 million (20.6%) to $409.4 million. Further, proceeds from gaming taxes amounted to $7.6 million, after nil records in the same period last year, due to timing related factors. Excise tax collection also advanced to $2.4 million from $0.4 million a year earlier. In addition, revenue from taxes on the use or supply of goods and services rose by $5.8 million (20.5%) to $34.1 million, attributed to gains in licences to conduct specific business activities (30.9%), taxes on marine license activities (50.7%), and motor vehicle taxes (5.9%). Likewise, taxes on international trade and transactions moved higher by $15.5 million (8.3%) to $202.7 million, largely supported by increases in export duties (20.2%) and departure taxes (11.4%). Proceeds from general stamp taxes also advanced to $9.3 million from just $0.2 million in the prior year. In a slight offset, property taxes decreased by $0.9 million (3.7%) to $24.4 million.

Non-tax revenue grew by $5.5 million (8.2%) to $71.8 million, owing primarily to a $9.0 million (15.1%) rise in the sales of goods and services to $68.3 million, on account of gains in receipts from customs and immigration fees. In addition, revenue from fines, penalties, and forfeits increased by $0.5 million (32.1%) to $1.9 million, while reimbursements and repayments remained unchanged, vis-à-vis the same period a year earlier. In contrast, revenue from property income reduced by $3.5 million (70.8%) to $1.5 million, while income from the sales of other non-financial assets declined by $0.3 million (69.4%) to $0.1 million and miscellaneous & unidentified revenue by $0.2 million (65.1%) to $0.1 million.

In terms of expenditure, recurrent spending expanded by $64.6 million (8.7%) to $803.8 million. In the underlying developments, various “miscellaneous” payments—including transfer payments—advanced by $28.2 million (31.4%) to $117.9 million, relative to the preceding year. Similarly, payments for the use of goods and services grew by $17.9 million (11.3%) to $176.9 million, while subsidies rose by $13.8 million (13.7%) to $114.2 million, owing mostly to an expansion in outlays to public corporations. Likewise, outlays for employee compensation increased by $8.9 million (4.1%) to $225.6 million. Further, allocations for social benefits moved higher by $2.1 million (3.6%) to $61.7 million, and grant payments, by $0.9 million (63.6%) to $2.3 million. Providing some offset, interest payments reduced by $7.2 million (6.4%) to $105.2 million, led by a decline in external obligations. Meanwhile, capital spending grew by $6.0 million (5.0%) to $127.0 million, explained by a $7.5 million (7.4%) rise in the acquisition of non-financial assets to $109.9 million. However, capital transfers decreased by $1.5 million (7.8%) to $18.0 million, vis-à-vis the previous fiscal year.

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