Monthly Economic and Financial Developments (MEFD) August 2025
Published: Monday September 29th, 2025
Monthly Economic and Financial Developments (MEFD)
August 2025
Domestic Economic Developments
Overview
Preliminary indicators are that the domestic economy grew at a moderated paced up through the month August, relative to the year earlier, as performance indicators continued to trend closer to their expected medium-term potential. Notably, tourism output rose at a slower pace, as a result of more constrained activity in the high value-added stopover segment, although the cruise sector earning growth remained buoyant. Further, on the labour front, the unemployment rate increased for the first quarter of 2025, vis-à-vis the final quarter of 2024, owing in part an estimated decrease in employed persons, and a rise in the labour force participation rate. Monetary trends for August were marked by a contraction in banking sector liquidity, as the growth in domestic credit outpaced the rise in the deposit base. Further, external reserves decreased, underpinned by net foreign currency outflows through both the public and private sectors.
Real Sector
Tourism
Indications are that growth in tourism sector earnings slowed in comparison to 2024, owing to accommodation capacity constraints in the stopover segment. Nonetheless, the cruise segment continued to register year-to-date robust gains and attract foreign investments in the development of onshore private destinations, despite a slowdown in the month of July.
Official data provided by the Ministry of Tourism showed that for the month of July, total arrivals decreased by 3.3% to 1.1 million visitors, vis-à-vis the same 2024 period. Specifically, sea passengers reduced by 3.8% to 0.9 million. In addition, air traffic declined by 0.9% to 0.2 million.
A disaggregation by major ports of entry revealed that arrivals to the Family Islands fell by 9.7% to 0.5 million, relative to the comparable period in the prior year. Of note, sea arrivals decreased by 10.1% to 0.4 million and air traffic by 4.8% to 34,478. Further, total visitors to New Providence declined by 0.1% to 0.5 million, relative to the previous year, as the 1.1% falloff in air passengers to 0.1 million, overshadowed the 0.2% uptick in sea arrivals to 0.4 million. In a slight offset, total visitors to Grand Bahama expanded by 26.1% to 71,400, from the preceding year. Contributing to this development, air arrivals grew by 32.4% to 6,484 and sea traffic, by 25.5% to 64,916.
On a year-to-date basis, total arrivals increased by 8.5% to 7.4 million visitors, as compared to the corresponding 2024 period. Underlying this outturn, sea passengers rose by 10.5% to 6.2 million. Conversely, air arrivals reduced by 1.3% to 1.1 million.
More recent data from the Nassau Airport Development Company Limited (NAD) revealed that total departures—net of domestic passengers—reduced by 3.0% to 150,366 in August, relative to the same period last year. In particular, US departures declined by 5.1% to 130,911. In an offset, non-US departures rose by 14.5% to 19,455. On a year-to-date basis, total outbound traffic decreased by 2.4% to 1.2 million. Specifically, US departures fell by 3.4% to 1.0 million. In contrast, non-US international departures grew by 4.3% to 0.2 million.
In the short-term vacation rental market, data provided by AirDNA indicated that in August, total room nights sold rose by 1.0% to 55,790, vis-à-vis the preceding year. However, given increased inventories, the occupancy rates for both entire place and hotel comparable listings declined to 36.9% and 37.5%, respectively, from 38.8% and 42.1% in the previous year. The average daily room rate (ADR) for entire place listings increased by 11.8% to $510.78, compared to the prior year. Likewise, the average daily room rate (ADR) for hotel comparable listings moved higher by 1.1% to $173.47, relative to the comparative 2024 period. On a year-to-date basis, total room nights sold grew by 7.8%, and the average daily rates for entire place and hotel comparable listings, rose by 9.1% and 2.2%, respectively.
Employment
Based on provisional quarterly estimates compiled by the Bahamas National Statistical Institute, labour market conditions deteriorated over the first quarter of 2025 vis-à-vis the final quarter of 2024, owing in part to a rise in the number of unemployed persons, and a hike in the labour force participation rate. In particular, the number of employed persons decreased to 214,725 in the first three months of 2025, relative to 218,240 in previous quarter, although marginally higher than the 213,585 persons recorded in the first quarter of 2024. Correspondingly, the unemployment rate rose to 10.8% in the first quarter from 9.0% in the prior quarter, and 8.7% in the comparable period of 2024. Further, the youth unemployment rate increased by 2.9 percentage points to 20.9% in the review quarter, as compared to same quarter of the preceding year.
Disaggregated by island, the jobless rate in New Providence firmed by 1.9 percentage points over the quarter, and by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year to stand at 11.0% at end-March 2025. In Grand Bahama, the unemployment rate rose to 12.8% from 10.0% in the prior quarter, and 9.8% in the same period last year. In Abaco, the jobless rate increased to 13.8% in the first three months, vis-à-vis 9.2% in the final three months of 2024.
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