Monthly Economic and Financial Developments (MEFD) September 2025

Published: Monday November 3rd, 2025

Domestic Economic Developments

Overview

Economic indicators suggest that the domestic economy’s expansion pace was sustained at a tempered pace during September 2025, vis-à-vis the same period in 2024, as key performance indicators continued to align more closely with their medium-term potential. Tourism output growth, while healthy, was moderated compared to 2024, as the high value-added stopover segment continued to face capacity constraints. Nevertheless, earnings from the cruise segment remained robust. On the fiscal front, provisional data on the Government’s budgetary operations for FY2024/25 showed that the deficit narrowed relative to FY2023/24, as the growth in total revenue outstripped the rise in aggregate expenditure. Monetary trends during the month of September featured a decline in the narrow measure of bank liquidity, as the expansion in domestic credit outpaced the buildup in the deposit base. Likewise, external reserves decreased, owing to net foreign currency outflows through the public and private sectors.

Real Sector

Tourism

Tourism metrics for the month of September indicated that growth in the sector’s earnings tapered relative to 2024. In particular, stopover activity—which represented the bulk of earnings—remained constrained by limited accommodation capacity, even though cruise sector expansion remained buoyant, also continuing to attract significant foreign investments in the development of onshore private destinations.

Official data provided by the Ministry of Tourism showed that for September, total arrivals grew by 2.3% to 0.7 million visitors vis-à-vis the comparative 2024 period. Leading this outturn, sea passengers rose by 3.0% to 0.7 million. However, air traffic decreased by 5.8% to 52,641.

A breakdown by major port of entry revealed that total arrivals to Grand Bahama advanced to 113,467 from 29,454 in the prior year, as sea and air arrivals increased to 110,896 and 2,571, from

27,404 and 2,050, respectively, a year earlier. By contrast, total arrivals to New Providence declined by 6.8% to 0.3 million, compared to the corresponding period of 2024. The outcome reflected a 7.2% reduction in sea visitors to 0.2 million and a 4.9% decrease in air arrivals to 45,571. Similarly, total arrivals to the Family Islands reduced by 12.8% to 0.3 million over the month, as sea arrivals fell by 12.6% to 0.3 million, while air traffic contracted by 23.9% to 4,499.

On a year-to-date basis, total arrivals increased by 8.7% to 9.1 million visitors, as compared to the corresponding 2024 period. Underlying this development, sea passengers rose by 10.8% to 7.8 million. Conversely, air arrivals declined by 1.9% to 1.3 million.

Recent data from the Nassau Airport Development Company Limited (NAD) revealed that total departures—net of domestic passengers—decreased by 5.2% to 74,502 in September, vis-à-vis the comparative period last year. Specifically, U.S departures reduced by 7.8% to 60,226. In contrast, other international departures strengthened by 7.9% to 14,276 compared to the same period in 2024. On a year-to-date basis, total outbound traffic declined by 2.6% to 1.3 million, due primarily to a fall in US departures by 3.7% to 1.1 million. In a partial offset, non-US international departures rose by 4.6% to 0.2 million.

In the short-term vacation rental market, data provided by AirDNA showed that total room nights sold edged up by 0.4% to 32,439, compared to the corresponding period in 2024. However, given the boost in inventories, the occupancy rate for entire place listings decreased to 29.3% from 30.9%. However, the occupancy rate for hotel comparable listings had a slight uptick to 33.5% from 33.4%.

The average daily room rate (ADR) reduced for entire place listings by 8.6% to $389.65 vis-à-vis the same period in 2024. However, the corresponding rate (ADR) for hotel comparable listings rose by 1.2% to $156.09 per night relative to the year prior. On a year-to-date basis, total room nights sold increased by 7.3%, and the average daily rates for both entire place and hotel comparable listings, were higher by 7.4% and 2.1%, respectively.

Fiscal

Provisional data on the Government’s budgetary operations for FY2024/25 showed that the overall deficit declined to $78.9 million from $194.0 million in FY2023/24. Reflective of this development, total revenue grew by $326.9 million (10.7%) to $3.4 billion, outpacing the $211.8 million (6.5%) rise in aggregate expenditure to $3.5 billion.

Revenue growth was mainly attributed to a $290.3 million (10.6%) growth in tax receipts. Contributing to this outturn, collections from taxes on international trade and transactions advanced by $146.4 million (20.2%) to $871.7 million, relative to the previous fiscal year, mainly supported by a $122.8 million (56.0%) increase in departure taxes, and $22.9 million (9.3%) in export taxes & excise duties.

Further, taxes on goods and services rose by $143.3 million (8.0%) to $1.9 billion vis-à-vis the preceding year. Of this amount, value-added tax (VAT) receipts grew by $91.8 million (6.8%), while stamp taxes on financial and real estate transactions increased by $17.0 million (15.6%). In addition, revenue from the use or supply of goods and services advanced by $40.7 million (14.5%) to $322.1 million, bolstered by higher proceeds from company taxes (63.5%), marine license activities (13.2%), motor vehicle taxes (14.2%) and licenses to conduct specific business activities (10.2%). Further, property taxes rose by $6.8 million (3.4%) to $210.0 million, and gaming taxes, by $1.8 million (3.9%) to $47.2 million. In a slight offset, excise taxes declined by $7.9 million (42.2%) to $10.8 million, while general stamp taxes decreased to $0.7 million from $7.1 million in the previous fiscal year, reflecting recently implemented exemptions under the Stamp Act.

Non-tax revenue expanded by $36.2 million (10.9%) to $369.2 million, supported by a $27.4 million (11.5%) increase in proceeds from the sale of goods and services to $266.1 million, reflecting a boost in receipts from immigration, customs, general services, and port and harbour fees. In addition, property income advanced by $11.1 million (23.6%) to $58.3 million. Payments for fines, penalties and forfeitures also rose by $1.5 million (24.6%) to $7.6 million, while miscellaneous and unidentified revenue grew by $1.6 million (36.0%) to $5.9 million. Providing some offset, proceeds from reimbursements and repayments fell by $5.0 million (14.2%) to $30.1 million, while sales of other non-financial assets declined by $0.4 million (23.1%) to $1.3 million.

In terms of expenditure, recurrent spending rose by $227.8 million (7.7%) to $3.2 billion in FY2024/25. Underlying this development, payments for the use of goods and services increased by $130.1 million (23.2%) to $691.6 million, and for other “miscellaneous” payments, by $24.5 million (8.8%) to $302.5 million. Similarly, interest payments grew by $59.2 million (9.7%) to $672.4 million, owing to a rise in both domestic and external debt obligations. Likewise, personal emoluments advanced by $35.1 million (4.2%) to $878.4 million. Conversely, subsidies fell by $11.0 million (2.7%) to $401.6 million, while allocations for social benefits decreased by $10.1 million (4.2%) to $233.7 million, vis-à-vis the previous fiscal year. Meanwhile, capital expenditure declined by $16.1 million (5.3%) to $285.6 million, explained by a $9.2 million (18.0%) decrease in capital transfers to $42.1 million, and a $6.8 million (2.7%) falloff in the acquisition of non-financial assets to $243.5 million.

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